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A Closer Look: China's National Emissions Trading System (ETS)

11:20 | 03/04/2025

Launched in 2021, China's National Emissions Trading System (ETS) aims to contribute to the effective control and gradual reduction of carbon emissions. It has rapidly become the world’s largest carbon market by covering emissions, encompassing approximately 5 billion tons of CO₂ annually and accounting for over 40% of China’s total CO₂ emissions.


 

Unlike other carbon markets, China's ETS is unique in its focus on carbon intensity—measuring emissions per unit of output—rather than total emissions. The system initially targeted the power sector, which became the first industry included in the carbon market.

According to the development plan, by 2025, eight major sectors—power, building materials, steel, non-ferrous metals, refining and petrochemicals, chemicals, paper, and aviation—will gradually be integrated into the market, provided they meet the necessary conditions for participation.
 

1. Approaching

China's ETS uses a bottom-up approach, granting free emission allowances to covered companies based on a national benchmark that compares carbon intensity across industries and products with verified emissions. Allowances match verified emissions, focusing on reducing carbon intensity rather than capping total emissions, making it a stepping stone toward a full cap-and-trade system. Covering 2,257 companies, the ETS reflects China's phased strategy to build a comprehensive carbon market while balancing economic and industrial priorities.

2. Allowances

Allowances in China's ETS are allocated for free based on output-based benchmarking, with adjustments made post-allocation to reflect actual production. Benchmarks include different types of coal plants and natural gas. In 2023, tighter benchmarks were proposed, especially for coal-fired power. Entities initially received allowances at 70% of their 2021 verified emissions, adjusted later based on actual generation. Less efficient units operating at lower load rates (<85%) may have received more allowances. Prices have ranged from 41–61 yuan (€5.70–8.48) per tonne, significantly lower than the EU's €80/t, reflecting China's early-stage ETS market dynamics.
 
3. Global Impact

ETS is expected to be the key to making China’s energy transition more cost-effective. A successful and robust Chinese ETS could represent a milestone in the long-term process of consolidating more than 64 carbon prices that coexist around the globe. Its failure, on the other hand, would be a big setback for the embrace of carbon markets worldwide.


References: 
https://icapcarbonaction.com/en/ets/china-national-ets
https://www.energymonitor.ai/policy/carbon-markets/carbon-trading-the-chinese-way/?cf-view&cf-closed

 




 

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